Growth in the Dutch manufacturing sector loses momentum in October

The Nevi PMI® for the Dutch manufacturing sector is a composite indicator that summarises the state of the sector in a single figure. It is based on five components: new orders, output, employment, supplier delivery times and stocks of purchases.

After reaching a 38‑month high of 53.7 in September, the headline PMI fell to 51.8 in October, signalling a modest improvement in overall operating conditions in Dutch manufacturing. The decline was driven by negative contributions from all five PMI components. 

Despite the slowdown compared with September’s recent peak, new orders remained the main driver of growth in October. The upturn was supported by a renewed increase in export orders, which panel members attributed to stronger demand from customers particularly in Europe and the Asia‑Pacific region.

The rise in new orders led to further growth in output at the start of the final quarter of 2025, extending the expansion trend that began in March. The pace of growth was broadly in line with the survey’s long‑term average.

Higher new order volumes and supply chain disruptions encouraged firms to increase their purchasing activity in October. Although the rise in input buying was modest, it was the strongest in more than three years.

Supplier delivery times lengthened again in October, with panel members citing shortages, capacity constraints at suppliers and delays at ports and shipping routes due to strikes. At the same time, stocks of purchases fell slightly. According to respondents, the decline partly reflected efforts to optimise inventory levels.

On the price front, October data pointed to a continued—albeit mild—increase in input costs for Dutch manufacturers. Evidence suggested that this was mainly driven by higher prices for food products, energy, wages and raw materials. Trends varied across subsectors, with only investment goods producers reporting higher input costs.

Companies nevertheless raised their selling prices at a solid pace in October, with all three manufacturing subsectors reporting price increases. As with input costs, output price inflation eased to its lowest level in twelve months.

Due to a further reduction in backlogs of work, firms reduced their staffing levels for the first time since May. Evidence suggested that the decline in employment was driven by voluntary resignations, restructuring efforts and a reduction in temporary staff.

Finally, Dutch manufacturers remained optimistic about the outlook for the coming twelve months. Around 42% of firms expressed confidence in their forecasts, supported by expectations of new customers, plans to expand product ranges and capacity investments. However, business confidence remained below the long‑term average.